Thursday, April 02, 2009

USD/JPY - Updated - 99.90 High

USD/JPY - Where to Next?

Just a quick update - the Yen continued to lose ground vs. the majors. USD/JPY hit a high of 99.90 before retreating. I'm currently neutral at these levels, though I think another run at 100 is possible.

USD/JPY - Selling of Yen Assets Continue

USD/JPY - Positive Outlook - 100 Mark?

I think we'll continue to see a move towards the 100 mark into the next 48 hours. Tech studies looking good. Fundamental data supports. Equities up.

******DailyFX Plus Article - Japanese Buyers Of Foreign Assets, Foreigners Sell Japan Tokyo, April 2. MoF flow data for the week-ended March 28 show recent trends intact. Japanese were net buyers of foreign assets during the period and foreign investors were, by and large, net sellers of Japanese assets.

Japanese bought a net Y246.4 bln in foreign stocks, Y663.1 bln in foreign bonds and a net Y21.4 bln in foreign bills. Flows in and out of foreign bonds continued to be heavy with Y1.9819 trln in sales against Y2.6451 bln in purchases. Anecdotal evidence suggests Japanese interest in foreign assets continued after the above period with flows noted from Japanese investors early this week and into the new Japanese fiscal year. Institutional investors look to be returning to foreign bonds with most JPY pairs looking to have bottomed in Q1 of "09. Retail investors, for their part, look to invest afresh in foreign assets with quite a few redemptions already having taken place and on the back of more redemptions at the start of the Japanese fiscal year. Though more picky than in the past, demand is still expected from the retail community and into the summer bonus season, though bonuses will definitely be much smaller this year (if paid out at all by some firms, especially manufacturers).

On the other side of the ledger, foreign investors sold the gamut of Japanese assets. They sold a net Y189.7 bln in Japanese stocks, Y719.8 bln in Japanese bonds and a net Y1.3753 bln in shorter-term Japanese securities. All were on heavy volume. Stocks saw purchases of Y3.0631 trln against sales of Y3.2528 trln, bonds saw purchases of Y1.0231 trln against sales of Y1.7429 trln and shorter-term bills saw purchases of Y1.8769 trln against sales of Y3.2521 trln. --Haruya.Ida@thomsonreuters.com******

USD/CHF - Continued Strenght?

USD/CHF - Triangle Formed with Fibonacci Support

Since the Fed's announcement of QE (Quantitative Easing) policy on the 17th of March, which led to a 5.6% depreciation of the dollar (1.1800 - 1.1170) in 24 hours, USD/CHF has been able to rebound to a high of 1.1550/CHF. Since reaching the highs last week, we've now tested the 50% retracement level of 1.1360 several times, being able to close above every time. The pair needs to hold above 1.1400 level if our trading plan is going to turn into a bullish opportunity. The 55 day moving average is aligned perfectly with the drawn trend line from last weeks' high to yesterdays' high. The 21 day MA is just underneath at 1.1381; USD/CHF currently trades at 1.1432.

A triangle/flag pattern has formed with a lot of Fib support inside. Besides U.S. unemployment claims Thursday morning, Suisse Gov. board member Hildebrand will be speaking about the "Developments in the Current Financial Crisis" at the Swiss Funds and Asset Management Forum, in Bern. With Switzerland's recent surprise announcement of intervention in the EUR/CHF pair, his comments will be closely monitored by the forex community for any clues surrounding the Swiss National Bank's intervention.

We shall see what happens during the London session and into the NY open.